Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
