A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
